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*
Department of Medicine (Division of Nephrology), University of Alberta,
Edmonton, Alberta, Canada.
Department of Public Health Sciences, University of Alberta, Edmonton,
Alberta, Canada.
Correspondence to Dr. Philip F. Halloran, Division of Nephrology and Immunology, #303, 8249-114 Street, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada T6G 2R8. Phone: 780-407-8880; Fax: 780-431-0461; E-mail: phil.halloran{at}ualberta.ca
Abstract. The function of renal transplants can deteriorate at any
time posttransplant, but the risks and mechanisms may differ at different
times posttransplant. Survival of 522 consecutive cadaveric renal transplant
recipients followed for at least 6 mo were analyzed, with patient death
censored. The overall risk factors in univariate analysis were acute rejection
requiring antibody therapy (AR), delayed graft function, elevated serum
creatinine at 6 mo, high panel-reactive antibodies, and donor age
55 yr,
with borderline effects of recipient age and female gender. These risks were
studied in each of three intervals posttransplantation:
6 mo, 6 mo to 5
yr, and >5 yr. Of the 135 graft failures, 53 occurred
6 mo, 61 between
6 mo and 5 yr, and 21 beyond 5 yr. By multivariate analysis, the risks for
graft failure in interval
6 mo were AR (hazard ratio (HR) = 4.86,
P < 0.001); delayed graft function (HR = 1.47, P = 0.06);
and high panel-reactive antibodies (HR = 2.04, P = 0.03). Between 6
mo and 5 yr, the risks for graft loss were AR (HR = 2.87, P <
0.001) and serum creatinine at 6 mo
150 µmol/L (HR = 3.69, P
< 0.001). Beyond 5 yr the risk factors were donor age
55 yr (HR = 5.87,
P = 0.002), with a borderline effect of kidneys from female donors
(HR = 2.28, P = 0.07). HLA-A, -B, and -DR matching and
presensitization had most of their effect through early AR and impaired
function. The results indicate that risks for graft loss are time-dependent:
early losses correlate with injury and rejection, but late events correlate
with donor age and possibly workload.
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