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Journal of the American Society of Nephrology, Vol 7, 786-791, Copyright © 1996 by American Society of Nephrology

REGULAR ARTICLES

A logistic-regression model provides novel guidelines to maximize the anti-acute rejection properties of cyclosporine with a minimum of toxicity

A Perna, E Gotti, E de Bernardis, N Perico and G Remuzzi
Mario Negri Institute for Pharmacological Research, Bergamo, Italy.

Although cyclosporine has become the mainstay of immunosuppression in organ transplantation, there is still no consensus on the criteria to optimize its anti-rejection activity with minimum toxicity. A clear and objective definition of target cyclosporine trough levels at different times from renal transplantation is still lacking, primarily because of the lack of a model correlating cyclosporine levels with probability of rejection or toxicity. In this study, logistic-regression model was developed that was applied to data collected retrospectively from two postoperative periods, i.e., Days 0 to 9 and 10 to 30, in 135 consecutive cadaveric renal transplant recipients, for a total of 1851 determinations. Only minimum and maximum trough levels were considered for each period. Concentration-response curves were estimated for Days 0 to 9 (P = 0.0001 for efficacy and P = 0.028 for toxicity) and for Days 10 to 30 (P = 0.015 for efficacy and P = 0.037 for toxicity). Therapeutic intervals of 330 to 430 ng/mL (parent compound in whole blood) for Days 0 to 9 and 260 to 390 ng/mL for Days 10 to 30 predicted an incidence of acute rejection of 22% and 12%, respectively, with a reasonably low toxicity that primarily consisted of elevation of serum aminotransferases.


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