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J Am Soc Nephrol 11:1122-1131, 2000
© 2000 American Society of Nephrology


REGULAR ARTICLES

Low Intraindividual Variability of Cyclosporin A Exposure Reduces Chronic Rejection Incidence and Health Care Costs

BARRY D. KAHAN*, MARIA WELSH*, DIANA L. URBAUER{dagger}, MELINDA B. MOSHEIM*, KATHLEEN M. BEUSTERIEN{ddagger}, MARTHA R. WOOD{ddagger}, LINDA P. SCHOENBERG*, JOSEPH DICESARE§, STEPHEN M. KATZ* and CHARLES T. VAN BUREN*

* Division of Immunology and Organ Transplantation, Department of Surgery, University of Texas Houston Health Science Center - Medical School, Houston, Texas
{dagger} Biometrics Consulting, Houston, Texas
{ddagger} Covance Health Economics and Outcomes Services, Inc., Washington, DC
§ Novartis Pharmaceuticals Corporation, East Hanover, New Jersey.

Correspondence to Dr. Barry D. Kahan, Division of Immunology and Organ Transplantation, Department of Surgery, University of Texas Houston Health Science Center - Medical School, 6431 Fannin, Suite 6.240, Houston, TX 77030. Phone: 713-500-7400; Fax: 713-500-0785; E-mail bkahan{at}orgtx71.med.uth.tmc.edu


    Abstract
 Top
 Abstract
 Introduction
 Materials and Methods
 Results
 Discussion
 References
 
Abstract. The present study applied a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis to assess the role of intraindividual variability of cyclosporin A (CsA) drug exposure in predisposing renal transplant recipients to the occurrence of chronic rejection, as well as to increased health care costs using a resource-based economic analysis. Two hundred and four adult renal transplant recipients were treated with tapering doses of prednisone (Pred) and with a concentration-controlled strategy that selected doses of the olive oil-based formulations of CsA (Sandimmune®) that achieved target concentrations based on serial pharmacokinetic profiles. The ROC analysis revealed an inflection point of plots of the coefficient of variation (%CV) of CsA exposure versus the risk of chronic rejection at >=28.4% for the average concentration (Cav), i.e., the dosing interval-corrected area under the concentration-time curves, and >=36% for the trough concentration (C0). The incidence of chronic rejection over a period of 5 yr was 24% among the less variable (LV) versus 40% among the variable (V) cohort. The economic analysis revealed that the total mean facility and physician costs per patient were $48,789 versus $60,998, respectively (P < 0.01). The degree of variability displayed by any individual could only be predicted by serial measurements of CsA concentrations, and not by demographic features, laboratory determinations, clinical characteristics, individual or mean values of any observed CsA concentration, or other pharmacokinetic parameters calculated following a single drug exposure. Thus, strategies that reduce intrapatient variability of CsA exposure over time may lead to reductions in chronic allograft loss and in treatment costs.


    Introduction
 Top
 Abstract
 Introduction
 Materials and Methods
 Results
 Discussion
 References
 
Oil-based liquid and gel capsule formulations of cyclosporin A (CsA), the cornerstone for most immunosuppressive regimens for the past 20 yr (1,2), display marked inter- and intraindividual variations in drug absorption, distribution, metabolism, and elimination (3). These characteristics, combined with the dangers inherent in either under- or overimmunosuppression, result in the narrow therapeutic range that characterizes CsA as a critical dose drug. Because the outcomes of CsA therapy do not correlate predictably with patient characteristics, such as body size or organ function, and because there are no known intermediate end points to titrate drug dosage to patient responses, treatment with this agent has been routinely monitored by serial estimates of trough concentrations (C0), i.e., the amount of drug in whole blood samples collected immediately before the next dose (4). This method, however, has only partially compensated for the interindividual pharmacokinetic differences, because C0 concentrations show a weak correlation with total drug exposure (5).

Similar to findings with other critical dose drugs, a pharmacokinetic approach using estimates of the area under the concentration-time curve (AUC) or the corresponding dosing interval-corrected value, Cav (5), offers a more reliable indicator of an individual patient's proclivity toward inadequate immunosuppression (6,7) versus nephrotoxicity (8). Thus, we adopted a concentration-control strategy that individualizes long-term CsA doses to maintain target Cav values (9). Analysis of the utility of this approach to reduce the likelihood of chronic rejection in 204 CsA-prednisone-treated renal transplant recipients revealed a significant impact of the degree of intraindividual variability of drug exposure over time posttransplant (10). Although this analysis identified variability, it did not determine the percent coefficient of variation that reflected the greatest sensitivity with the least probability of a false diagnosis of chronic rejection. Therefore, the purposes of the present analysis were: (1) to extend the original database for an additional 12 mo of clinical and pharmacokinetic followup; (2) to use a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis (11) to establish the inflection point on a plot of intraindividual coefficient of variation (%CV) of CsA exposure, estimated based on either Cav or C0 values, versus occurrence of chronic rejection; and (3) to determine whether the patient cohorts with variable versus less variable behaviors show different health care costs.


    Materials and Methods
 Top
 Abstract
 Introduction
 Materials and Methods
 Results
 Discussion
 References
 
Clinical Material
The cohort of 204 adult patients spanning 20 to 72 yr of age received renal transplants under a dual-drug immunosuppressive regimen of prednisone (Pred) administered in tapering doses, and the olive oil-based liquid or corn oil-based gel capsule formulation of CsA (Sandimmune®; Novartis, Basel, Switzerland) administered at concentration-controlled doses based on Cav values during the study period from February 25, 1988 to July 27, 1994. Pred was tapered from 120 mg on the day of surgery to 30 mg by day 7, 15 mg by day 90, and 10 mg by day 180 (12). None of the patients in this study received either the microemulsion formulation of CsA (Neoral®; Novartis) or triple-drug therapy with the nucleoside synthesis inhibitors azathioprine or mycophenolate mofetil. The median follow-up time for patients who did not experience chronic rejection was 45.6 mo; the longest follow-up was 98.6 mo. Patients were withdrawn from the study upon the occurrence of the end point of biopsy-proven chronic rejection. The demographic features of each transplant recipient were collated: age, gender, ethnicity, organ donor source (living related/unrelated versus cadaveric), body mass index, panel-reactive antibody, HLA-mismatch, diagnosis of diabetes, pretransplant transfusions, donor gender and age, as well as first versus retransplant.

CsA Concentration Measurements
Whole blood samples for pharmacokinetic profiles were obtained before (C0; trough) as well as 2, 4, 6, 10, 14, and 24 h after dosing for patients treated with a once-daily CsA regimen, and before as well as 2, 4, 6, 8, 10, and 12 h after dosing for patients treated with a twice-daily CsA regimen. Whole blood CsA concentrations were estimated using a monoclonal selective antibody in the fluorescence polarization immunoassay (TDx®; Abbott Laboratories, North Chicago, IL) (13).

CsA Concentration-Control Regimen
Pretransplant pharmacokinetic studies were used to select starting CsA doses, as described previously (14,15). In the initial posttransplant period, CsA was delivered by continuous intravenous infusion for 48 to 72 h at a dose calculated to produce a steady-state concentration (Css) of 400 ± 50 ng/ml (16). Thereafter, the continuous intravenous infusion CsA dose was tailored by linear extrapolation based on the ratio of the observed-to-target Css values. The infusion was discontinued upon satisfactory absorption of a concomitant, orally administered CsA dose, i.e., documentation that maximum concentration (Cmax) minus Css was greater than 700 ng/ml CsA.

Patients were initially assigned to a once- versus a twice-daily oral dose regimen according to their CsA clearance rate, i.e., the ratio of the intravenous dose (mg/kg per d) to the Css (ng/ml) (17): Values <325 ml/min indicated a once-daily regimen (<325), and those above this rate a twice-daily regimen (>=325) (18). Thereafter, the dosing interval was selected to maintain C0 >= 250 ± 50 ng/ml, and the actual CsA dose (in mg) was adjusted to maintain Cav = 550 ± 50 ng/ml for the first posttransplant month. During the subsequent 2 mo, dosing intervals were selected to maintain C0 >= 200 ± 50 ng/ml, and twice weekly pharmacokinetic profiles guided dose adjustments to achieve Cav = 500 ± 50 ng/ml. From 3 to 6 mo posttransplant, monthly pharmacokinetic profiles guided dose adjustments to achieve Cav = 450 ± 50 ng/ml and C0 >= 175 ± 50 ng/ml. From 6 to 12 mo posttransplant, alternate month pharmacokinetic profiles guided dose adjustments to achieve Cav = 400 ± 50 ng/ml and C0 >= 150 ± 50 ng/ml. Thereafter, pharmacokinetic profiles were performed every 3 to 6 mo to guide dose adjustments to maintain Cav = 350 ± 50 ng/ml and C0 >= 100 ± 50 ng/ml. Comparison of the target with the (mean observed) and [one quartile range] of Cav values at each posttransplant interval showed reasonable application of the concentration-control strategy: namely, 550 ng/ml (555.62) [128] during the first month; 500 ng/ml (504.70) [95] from months 1 to 3; 450 ng/ml (432.14) [85] for months 4 to 6; 400 ng/ml (393.22) [72] for months 7 to 12; and 350 ng/ml (351.29) [65] for months 13 to 90, respectively (9). If an adverse event occurred or if the CsA dose had to be adjusted, a pharmacokinetic profile was performed after at least three (and usually seven) dosing intervals. C0 independent of the pharmacokinetic profiles were not measured in this protocol.

Pharmacokinetic Parameter Calculations
Whole blood steady-state CsA concentration-time data were analyzed by standard noncompartmental methods (19). The data set included a total of 4678 pharmacokinetic profiles from 204 patients—an increase of 793 profiles over our previous report (10). The highest measured whole blood CsA concentration and the corresponding sampling time were defined as Cmax and tmax, respectively. The drug concentrations at the beginning and at the end of the dosing period were designated as C0, and C12 or C24, respectively. The linear trapezoidal rule was used to calculate the AUC from concentration values within the dosing interval, and corrected to the Cav by dosing interval adjustment (AUC/{tau}, in hours). The initial absolute bioavailability (F) was estimated by the dose-corrected AUC after oral versus intravenous infusion (14). In addition to the mean (±SD) and the median, absolute, and dose-corrected values of the pharmacokinetic parameters, the intrapatient %CV, defined as ([SD/mean] x 100), was calculated for each pharmacokinetic parameter. The mean numbers of profiles were similar for patients stratified by the demographic characteristics of age and race (data not shown).

Clinical Management and Diagnosis of Rejection
After the first 6 mo, patients were examined every 90 to 180 d in the Transplant Center, depending on the exigency of other medical complications. Each visit included a physician's assessment by history and physical examination, as well as a complete blood count and Sequential Multiple Analysis of 20 chemical constituents laboratory test panel. Alternate visits also included a 24-h urinary protein determination. Histopathologic evidence of chronic rejection by renal transplant biopsy was mandated in patients experiencing deterioration of renal function as evidenced by an elevation of serum creatinine >30% above baseline, by proteinuria, and/or by progressive/persistent hypertension refractory to two-agent antihypertensive therapy.

The diagnosis was always confirmed by the presence of histopathologic features of obliterative vascular disease, including arterial and/or arteriolar endothelial and smooth muscle changes, which were frequently accompanied by glomerulopathy. Tubular atrophy and/or interstitial fibrosis alone were not deemed sufficient conditions to establish the diagnosis of chronic rejection.

Treatment Cost Calculations
Nurse reviewers examined the medical charts for 195 of the 204 patients in a blinded manner. The reviewers identified medical services provided over the 5-yr periof after the transplant procedure or until the patient reached one of the following end points: switched to another immunosuppressive regimen, retransplant, or death. The specific medical services abstracted included all hospitalizations, inpatient procedures, outpatient visits, and procedures related to renal transplant care. The average follow-up period for the economic analysis was 54 mo, and was comparable between groups.

Facility and physician services were assigned costs based on Medicare reimbursement rates in 1997. Inpatient facility costs were based on abstracted Diagnosis Related Group (DRG) codes and corresponding Medicare payment rates. Inpatient physician services were determined based on the abstracted International Classification of Diseases, 9th Revision, Clinical Modification (ICD-9-CM) procedure codes. For each ICD-9-CM code, the appropriate procedure-based Current Procedural Terminology (CPT) codes for both surgeons and anesthesiologists were selected (20). If a patient was admitted to the hospital without undergoing major procedures, physician costs were assigned according to the length of hospital stay. Hospital outpatient professional services also were identified by CPT codes. CPT codes were matched to the corresponding relative value unit from the Resource-Based Relative Value Scale (21), which was then used to estimate physician costs based on the 1997 Medicare Fee Schedule for Houston, Texas (20).

Outpatient facility costs were estimated using the Ambulatory Patient Group (APG) payment system and the corresponding Medicare reimbursement levels (22). This system is similar to the Ambulatory Payment Classification (APC) hospital outpatient department payment system to be adopted by Medicare in the near future. The costs of outpatient laboratory tests were estimated using the 1997 Clinical Laboratory Fee Schedule for Texas (23).

Statistical Analyses
To compare the occurrence of chronic rejection to the distribution of demographic factors and clinical features among the 204 patients, we used t tests for continuous variables (such as recipient age, donor age, and dry weight) and Fisher exact tests for categorical variables (such as race, gender, and donor source). For multiple laboratory determinations, clinical parameters, and pharmacokinetic values (such as hemoglobin, total protein, and number of antihypertensive medications), we used t tests to compare the mean values of the clinical parameters of patients who did not versus those who did experience chronic rejection during the observation period. The entire follow-up period was subdivided into total time before the diagnosis of chronic rejection, as well as subsets of mean values within the time intervals of 3 to 6, 6 to 12, 12 to 24, and 24 to 36 mo after transplantation.

Logistic regression models were used to assess whether an individual clinical parameter was associated with the occurrence of chronic rejection, while controlling for the influence of demographic factors or laboratory values that we have already demonstrated to be related to the occurrence of chronic rejection in this patient cohort. Backward elimination was then used to determine which factors/values would remain in the model. After the pharmacokinetic variables that influenced the occurrence of chronic rejection were identified, ROC curves were constructed to depict the ability of individual variables to predict the occurrence of chronic rejection (11,24). Each ROC curve expressed the capacity for a clinical parameter to predict rejection, taking into account both the accurate predictions (sensitivity, or true-positive rate) and inaccurate predictions of chronic rejection (false-positive rate). The time to chronic rejection was compared between cohorts using a Kaplan-Meier analysis. A general linear models procedure was used to estimate the variability of clinical parameters over time using a repeated-measures ANOVA (MANOVA), as well as univariate and multivariate analyses, to test the hypothesis that variability neither decreased nor increased over time (25). All analyses were performed using SAS version 6.12 on a personal computer (26).

Costs were compared between groups using the Mann-Whitney test, a nonparametric alternative to the t test. All statistical tests were two-tailed and performed with P < 0.05 as the upper limit of significance.


    Results
 Top
 Abstract
 Introduction
 Materials and Methods
 Results
 Discussion
 References
 
Association of Demographic Factors and Chronic Rejection
Table 1 shows the demographic characteristics that were significantly different between the 71 (34%) patients who experienced chronic rejection and the 133 (66%) who remained free of this complication. During the additional 12 mo of follow-up since the termination of the previous study (10), 14 of the 147 patients still at risk experienced the onset of chronic rejection. The new data set confirmed the significant adverse impact of three demographic factors shown in the previous study (10) to increase the occurrence of chronic rejection: African-American race (P = 0.01), an acute rejection episode (P < 0.0001), and delayed graft function (P = 0.006). In addition, the present study revealed the adverse impact of another factor on chronic rejection: drug-induced nephrotoxicity (P <= 0.0001), which was defined as an increase of at least 25% over the baseline value of serum creatinine, without evidence of rejection upon transplant biopsy but with reversal upon CsA dose reduction. Although an initial univariate analysis suggested that chronic rejection was directly associated with dry weight (P = 0.0135) and inversely with CsA dose per day (P = 0.0113), multivariate logistic regression models showed that these factors were not significant. Clinical outcome was not associated with the other demographic factors, including donor or recipient age or gender, donor source, repeat transplant, mode of previous dialysis treatment versus preemptive transplant, diagnosis of diabetes mellitus, HLA mismatch, or incidence of infection (data not shown).


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Table 1. Demographic variables that significantly correlated with the occurrence of chronic rejectiona
 

Pharmacokinetic Values Associated with an Increased Risk of Chronic Rejection
This study revealed an inverse association between the fraction of patients free of the occurrence of chronic rejection and the %CV values for Cav or C0 (Figure 1). There were strong associations between the occurrence of chronic rejection and the %CV both of observed and dose-corrected values for Cav (P = 0.002 and P = 0.001, respectively) to a greater extent than C0 (P = 0.004 and P = 0.052), but only for the observed %CV of Cmax (P = 0.033) (Table 2). There was no statistically significant difference among the overall mean (or immediately precedent) values of the observed (or dose-corrected) trough concentrations (C0 or C12/24), Cmax, or Cav between subjects free of versus those afflicted with chronic rejection (data not shown).



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Figure 1. Association of freedom from chronic rejection with lower values of the percent coefficient of variation (%CV) of cyclosporin A (CsA) concentrations. The numbers of patients in each ±5% value of CV for average concentration (Cav) (Panel A) or trough concentration (C0) (Panel B) are shown inside each bar. Although cohorts including one or two patients have been excluded from the figure, the actual number of chronic rejectors per total number of patients in each of these cohorts for Cav is 3 to 8% (1 of 1), 8 to 13% (1 of 2), 54 to 59% (0 of 1); and for C0, 3 to 8% (1 of 1), 69 to 74% (1 of 2), and 117 to 122% (0 of 1).

 

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Table 2. Association between %CV of pharmacokinetic variables and the occurrence of chronic rejectiona
 

To determine the inflection point at which the %CV provided the most sensitive prediction of chronic rejection, we performed ROC analyses. For a given %CV, the ordinate value shows the percentage of patients with the diagnosis of chronic rejection (true-positive results), and the abscissa value shows the percentage of patients without evidence of chronic rejection (false-positive results). Figure 2 shows that the ROC plot of %CV Cav has a lower inflection point, i.e., 28.4%, and includes a larger area of predictive significance, i.e., 6301 units, than the %CV C0, with an inflection point at 36% and an area of 5898 units. (An ROC analysis failed to show a significant predictive effect of Cmax values [data not shown].) Thus, the analysis defined the variable (V) cohort as the group of patients with %CV of Cav >= 28.4% and C0 >= 36%, and the less variable (LV) group as those patients with values below the inflection point (Figure 3).



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Figure 2. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis of the correlation between %CV and the occurrence of chronic rejection. For a given %CV (as indicated by the number juxtaposed to the broken line) of the Cav (Panel A) or C0 (Panel B), the ordinate values show the corresponding true-positive rate (fraction of patients with that %CV who suffered from chronic rejection), and the abscissa values show the corresponding false-positive rate (fraction of patients with that CV who did not suffer from chronic rejection). The inflection point (indicated by the dot) was chosen as the optimal diagnostic value. The area between the ROC curve and the diagonal line is shown as a numerical value, reflecting the degree to which a parameter shows a predictive benefit.

 


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Figure 3. Percentage of patients experiencing chronic rejection stratified by %CV. The inflection points of the ROC curves (Figure 2) partitioned patients based on the %CV of Cav or C0.

 

The inflection points of %CV Cav <= 28.4% or %CV C0 <= 36% yielded similar values of sensitivity (77.5%) and specificity (39%) (Table 3). Furthermore, both C0 and Cav parameters showed higher negative predictive values (76.5 and 76.8%, respectively) than positive predictive values (40.4 and 40.7%, respectively). These findings suggest that a low coefficient of variation is a better predictor of patients who will not experience chronic rejection than a high coefficient is of those who will develop this complication.


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Table 3. Sensitivity/specificity analysis of %CV Cav and %CV C0 values to predict the occurrence of chronic rejectiona
 

Time-to-Event Analysis
Although patients did not undergo protocol biopsies at stipulated intervals posttransplant, the LV cohorts showed a longer time than the V cohorts to the diagnosis of chronic rejection (Figure 4). For variability of both Cav and C0, the Kaplan-Meier analysis revealed significant differences between the cohorts, i.e., P = 0.001 and P = 0.006, respectively.



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Figure 4. Time-to-chronic rejection for patient cohorts stratified as variable (V) versus less variable (LV). Time-to-event plots based on %CV of Cav (Panel A) and C0 (Panel B) for the LV (—) versus the V (—) cohorts. Kaplan-Meier analysis revealed for Panel A, P = 0.001, and for Panel B, P = 0.006.

 

Lack of Association between the Degree of Pharmacokinetic Variability and Demographic Factors, Clinical Characteristics, or Laboratory Values
The demographic, clinical, and laboratory values (data not shown) were similar between members of the V and LV cohorts, suggesting that it is unlikely that membership in each cohort reflected comorbid conditions. The mean follow-up periods in the LV and V cohorts were 3.49 and 3.58 yr, respectively (P = 0.73, NS). Furthermore, the mean number of pharmacokinetic profiles per patient was only slightly greater for the V group (23.86 ± 8.24) than the LV group (21.1 ± 7.64; P = 0.018 by two-sample t test).

In addition, there was no correlation between the mean concentrations or pharmacokinetic parameter values (C0, C12/24, Cmax, or Cav) among patients in the V versus LV cohorts for Cav (Table 4) or C0 (data not shown). Furthermore, there was no relationship between the degree of posttransplant variability for Cav or C0 and the absolute oral bioavailability or initial drug clearance rate, as determined using paired intravenous and oral administration of CsA in the early postoperative period (data not shown).


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Table 4. Mean concentration values of all pharmacokinetic profiles among the 204 patients stratified by %CV of Cava
 

Distribution of Variability in the Population
Frequency plots of the fraction of patients with individual %CV values revealed that the LV cohort, defined as Cav <= 28.4% and C0 <= 36%, comprised only 33% of patients. Serial comparisons revealed that the patients in the LV cohort showed relatively constant %CV values over time (data not shown). Similarly, examination of the %CV at various intervals posttransplant confirmed that patients in the V cohort within the first posttransplant year did not show a decrease in intrapatient variability over time using repeated-measures ANOVA and univariate (Greenhouse-Geisser or Huynh-Feldt) and multivariate (Wilks' {lambda} statistic) tests.

Health Economics
Table 5 shows the medical resource utilization over the 5-yr posttransplant period among the V and LV CsA bio-availability groups. Fewer patients in the LV group were rehospitalized compared to those in the V group (62% versus 83%, P < 0.05). The LV group had a mean of 2.5 rehospitalizations per patient, compared with 4.0 rehospitalizations per patient among the V group (P < 0.05). Furthermore, the mean length of stay for the transplant hospitalization was shorter in the LV group compared to the V group (8.3 versus 10.6 d, respectively; P < 0.05; data not shown). Compared to the V group, patients in the LV group also received significantly fewer administrations of Solu-Medrol antirejection therapy (30% versus 64%, P < 0.05). Eliminating from the analysis all rehospitalizations for non-renal-related conditions (cardiovascular disorder, lung disease, fracture, etc.) did not diminish the differences between the groups. Differences were also observed in outpatient resource utilization. The LV group had a lower mean number of outpatient renal care visits compared to the V group (17 versus 21, P < 0.05) (Table 5). In addition, the mean number of outpatient renal scan procedures per patient was lower among members of the LV group compared to the V group: Approximately 33% of the LV patients underwent at least one renal scan, compared with 52% of the patients in the V group (P < 0.05) (Table 5). A total of 25 (36%) patients in the LV group and 32 (25%) patients in the V group reached an end point of switching immunosuppressive regimens, retransplant, or death. In addition, seven (10%) of the LV patients and six (5%) of the V patients were lost to follow-up.


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Table 5. Medical resource utilization during 5-yr posttransplant period
 

The differences observed in medial resource utilization between the V and the LV groups were reflected in renal care costs. Over the entire period, mean per-patient facility costs for all renal-related rehospitalizations for the LV and V groups were $11,788 and $23,391, respectively (P < 0.01; data not shown). Mean per-patient outpatient facility costs also were lower for the LV group ($2,823) than for the V group ($3,541; P < 0.05). Overall, the total inpatient and outpatient health care costs, including both facility and physician costs and including the initial hospitalization, for the LV and V groups were $48,789 (median = $37,322) and $60,998 (median = $49,646), respectively (P < 0.01) (Figure 5).



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Figure 5. Comparison of the total mean 5-yr costs for renal care among patients with variable and less variable pharmacokinetic patterns of CsA exposure. The hatched areas indicate facility costs, and the black-shaded areas indicate physician costs, in U.S. dollars. *P < 0.05 for the difference in outpatient costs between groups; **P < 0.01 for the difference in inpatient costs between groups.

 


    Discussion
 Top
 Abstract
 Introduction
 Materials and Methods
 Results
 Discussion
 References
 
The present study suggests an adverse impact of intraindividual variability of CsA exposure upon both the incidence of chronic rejection and the costs of health care among 204 renal transplant recipients followed for 5 yr. An ROC analysis was used to assign patients to LV versus V cohorts, based on their %CV of Cav or C0 CsA concentrations, measured by pharmacokinetic profiles performed every 6 mo. Patients selected to be in the LV cohorts of %CV Cav or %CV C0 displayed a significantly longer time to the occurrence of chronic rejection and lower overall health care costs. The 33% of renal transplant recipients who were members of the LV cohort could not, unfortunately, be discriminated from members of the V cohort based on any demographic, clinical, or laboratory characteristic, but only by serial pharmacokinetic profiling.

Low pharmacokinetic variability may confer relatively constant CsA immunosuppressive exposure. Indeed, the high degrees of intraindividual variability documented with many widely used drugs, such as dihydropyridine calcium channel blockers, have also been associated with adverse impacts, particularly among individuals afflicted with illnesses in which a lack of efficacy has dire clinical consequences, i.e., the chemotherapeutic treatment for human immunodeficiency disease.

In addition to finding a role of variability, the present study detected an association between the diagnosis of nephrotoxicity and the occurrence of chronic rejection. This association, which had been suspected but not shown previously, may be explained in at least two ways. This phenomenon may represent an error in diagnosis, wherein the "nephrotoxic event" in fact indicates a progressive albeit subclinical rejection or a nonimmunologic nephropathic process. In those cases, CsA dose reduction may improve renal function, presumably by ameliorating the drug-induced nephrotoxic component of the overall injury. Alternatively, the drug-induced nephrotoxic injury may lower the intrinsic resistance of the allograft to a subsequent chronic rejection process. Although drug-induced renal dysfunction represents a major indication for CsA dose reduction, it appears likely that this factor alone would predispose to chronic rejection, unless the CsA dose is drastically lowered beyond a certain amount (27). Indeed, during any given time interval, there was no significant difference between the mean observed or dose-corrected Cav values, or between the median CsA doses administered to the groups of putatively nephrotoxic patients afflicted with (381.45 mg/d; n = 71) versus those free of (337.16 mg/d; n = 133) chronic rejection. The only significant association other than intraindividual variability with the diagnosis of nephrotoxicity was the dose-corrected Cmax (P = 0.039; data not shown), a finding that confirms our previous observation (7).

The association between the inflection points reflecting low intraindividual variability of drug exposure (%CV Cav <= 28.4% and %CV C0 <= 36%) was more robust for its negative than for its positive predictive value for the diagnosis of chronic rejection. The limited capacity of a high level of variability to predict patients who would experience chronic graft failure may be the result of preeminent and inconsistent risk factors that overpower the biopharmaceutic effect of variability, including CsA-resistant induction of B cell antibody production, preexistent donor kidney injury and/or limited renal mass (28), or independent pharmacodynamic variabilities of the efficacy of drug effect. For example, Batiuk et al. (29) observed that CsA produces incomplete degrees of and inter-individual differences in inhibition of calcineurin activity, the putative target of drug action. We plan to study the association between estimates of kinetic variability and calcineurin activity in the same manner that Vozeh et al. (30) documented a linear relation between theophylline concentrations and lung functions in asthmatic patients. The planned studies may help clarify the association between pharmacokinetic parameters and dynamic slopes or maximal effects of CsA at its calcineurin target.

The finding that %CV C0 offers a more useful (albeit less sensitive) measure of variability than %CV Cav extends earlier findings of an association between a high degree of trough concentration variability in the early posttransplant period and acute rejection episodes in renal (31) and heart and lung (32) transplant recipients. Furthermore, Savoldi et al. (33) found that among a cohort of 157 renal transplant recipients, patients with a %CV of C0 below the median value of 31% showed a significantly greater incidence of functioning allografts than did patients with higher variability (mean period of 7 ± 2.3 yr). The present analysis extends these findings by identifying >=36% as the inflection point for C0.

It seems more likely that variable oral absorption of CsA, rather than drug clearance rates, explains the present findings, since our previous studies failed to document significant changes in CsA clearance rates over time posttransplant in the absence of concomitant drug therapy altering cytochrome P450 3A4 activity (7). This hypothesis is consistent with the observations of Sanathanan and Peck (34): Variability of absorption of a variety of drugs enhances the effects of pharmacokinetic variation. However, it will be important to combine pharmacokinetic profiling with erythromycin breath tests (35) to exclude the influence of changes in hepatic disposition on drug variability.

All patients were concentration-controlled based on adjustment of CsA doses to achieve similar levels of exposure, i.e., Cav = 350 ± 50 ng/ml, based on pharmacokinetic profiles. It is impossible to ascertain whether a different target Cav value would reduce the risk of patients experiencing chronic rejection versus nephrotoxicity, and indeed whether patients maintained at this Cav would show less impact of variability on outcome. Furthermore, the inflection points of ROC curves may vary, depending on the concentration targets, the patterns of patient care, and the precision of the concentration monitoring programs either to obtain precisely timed C0 samples or to perform pharmacokinetic profiles for Cav values. Therefore, transplant centers should perform their own ROC analyses to examine the impact of %CV; the findings may vary according to not only patient characteristics but also the immunosuppressive regimen.

One might propose several explanations for the occurrence and biologic implications of intraindividual pharmacokinetic variability. First, because it persists over a long time period and is not associated with age, variability is unlikely to reflect maturational effects akin to those observed in pediatric and adolescent populations (36). Second, it seems unlikely that low variability is merely a reflection of better patient compliance to the immunosuppressive regimen. Patients in the V cohort neither admitted nor seemed to display evidence of noncompliance to a greater degree than did their LV counterparts (data not shown). Indeed, patients in the V cohort underwent outpatient follow-up a significantly greater number of times within each time interval than patients in the LV cohort (Table 5). Third, the long-term persistence of the pharmacokinetic variability suggests that it is unrelated to recovery of the impaired gastrointestinal function associated with chronic renal failure. Thus, one can only speculate that variability is due to episodic absorptive variations caused by coadministered over-the-counter medications and/or a variety of foods in the diet. Unfortunately, there are no reliable, quantitative, and clinically relevant surrogate techniques to evaluate intestinal factors that might predispose patients to variable drug absorption.

At least two strategies may be envisioned to overcome the adverse impact of high degrees of CsA variability described herein. On one hand, combination therapy of CsA with additional agents (mycophenolate mofetil [(37)] and/or sirolimus [(38)]) may potentiate the immunosuppressive effects and possibly exert direct actions to mitigate smooth muscle cell proliferation—a pathognomonic feature of chronic rejection. A 3-yr study is under way to compare the effects of addition of sirolimus to reduce the incidence of chronic rejection among CsA-treated patients. On the other hand, an improved biopharmaceutical formulation of CsA might increase the proportion of patients in the LV group. The new microemulsion CsA formulation Neoral® (39) seems to afford more consistent absorption, at least during the first 12 mo, i.e., a mean %CV of 18% compared to 36% for the oil-based formulation (B. Kahan, unpublished data). Indeed, potential cost benefits associated with the microemulsion formulation have been shown in a retrospective medical chart review of patients at Canadian centers participating in a multinational, randomized clinical trial comparing Neoral® to Sandimmune® (40).

The economic evaluation only sought to examine the correlation between pharmacokinetic variability and costs derived from the perspective of the transplant service. If a broader perspective was adopted and costs for other renal-related services, such as dialysis, were incorporated, it is likely that costs for these services would be disproportionately higher in the V group versus the LV group because a higher proportion of patients in the former group experienced chronic rejection (39% versus 22%, respectively) and likely required institution of dialysis. Thus, the differences in costs incurred within the two groups may have been higher if a broader perspective were evaluated. Future studies should use a decision analysis that determines the costs associated with true-positive, false-positive, true-negative, and false-negative results of the estimates of interindividual variability to assess the value of serial pharmacokinetic profiling to effectively predict the occurrence of chronic rejection and to test whether the present values for variability are optimal.

This study provides a longitudinal view of the impact of pharmacokinetic variability on chronic rejection incidence, as well as on inpatient and outpatient medical resource utilization, over the first 5 yr after renal transplantation. Members of the LV cohort displayed a reduced risk of chronic rejection and incurred significantly lower treatment costs. The findings suggest that more consistent drug absorption among the renal transplant recipient population may improve long-term outcomes and result in substantial cost advantages.


    Acknowledgments
 
This work was supported by Grant NIDDK 38106-11 from the National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases. The health economic analysis was supported by an independent contract to Covance from Novartis Pharmaceuticals Corp.


    Footnotes
 
Journal of the American Society of Nephrology


    References
 Top
 Abstract
 Introduction
 Materials and Methods
 Results
 Discussion
 References
 

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Received for publication March 5, 1999. Accepted for publication October 2, 1999.




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