Association of Blood Pressure Trajectories in Early Life with Subclinical Renal Damage in Middle Age

Background Although high BP is one of the most important factors affecting renal function, whether longitudinal BP trajectories in early life course are associated with renal function damage in later life is unclear.

Methods To investigate the correlation between BP trajectories from childhood to adulthood and renal function in middle age, we used group-based trajectory models to identify BP trajectories in 2430 individuals (aged 6–15 years old at baseline) participating in the ongoing Hanzhong Adolescent Hypertension Cohort. We tested the association between these trajectories and subclinical renal damage in middle age, adjusting for several covariates.

Results We identified four distinct systolic BP trajectories among 2430 subjects: low stable, moderate stable, high stable, and moderate increasing on the basis of systolic BP levels at baseline and during the 30-year follow-up period. The urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (uACR) was higher in moderate stable, high stable, and moderate increasing groups compared with the low stable group. A total of 228 individuals had subclinical renal disease by 2017. Compared with the low stable trajectory group, the other groups had increasingly greater odds of experiencing subclinical renal disease in middle age. These associations were not altered after adjustment for other covariates, except for in the moderate stable group. Analyzed results were similar for the mean arterial pressure and diastolic BP trajectory groups.

Conclusions Higher BP trajectories were correlated with higher of uACR levels and risk of subclinical renal disease in middle age. Identifying long-term BP trajectories from early age may assist in predicting individuals’ renal function in later life.