Abstract
Background Performance of kidney transplant programs in the United States is monitored and publicly reported by the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients (SRTR). With relatively few allograft failure events per program and increasing homogeneity in program performance, quantifying meaningful differences in program competency based only on 1-year survival rates is challenging.
Methods We explored whether the traditional endpoint of allograft failure at 1 year can be improved by incorporating a measure of allograft function—estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR)—into a composite endpoint. We divided SRTR data from 2008 through 2018 into a training and validation set and recreated SRTR tiers, using the traditional and composite endpoints. The conditional 5-year deceased donor allograft survival and 5-year eGFR were then assessed using each approach.
Results Compared with the traditional endpoint, the composite endpoint of graft failure or eGFR<30 ml/min per 1.73m2 at 1 year posttransplant performed better in stratifying transplant programs based on long-term deceased donor graft survival. For tiers 1 through 5 respectively, the 5-year conditional graft survival was 72.9%, 74.8%, 75.4%, 77.0%, and 79.7% using the traditional endpoint and 71.1%, 74.4%, 76.9%, 77.0%, and 78.4% with the composite endpoint. Additionally, with the 5-tier system derived from the composite endpoint, programs in tier 3, tier 4, and tier 5 had significantly higher mean eGFRs at 5 years compared with programs in tier 1. There were no significant eGFR differences among tiers derived from the traditional endpoint alone.
Conclusions This proof-of-concept study suggests that a composite endpoint incorporating allograft function may improve the posttransplant component of the five-tier system by better differentiating between transplant programs with respect to long-term graft outcomes.
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