Table 1.

Observed and forecasted values for selected yearsa

19901997200020052010
a The top values for each variable are forecasted values. The bottom values for each variable in the 1990 and 1997 columns are observed values. The bottom values in the 2000, 2005, and 2010 columns are 95% confidence intervals for the forecasts.
Incidence, model 148,35978,80489,749109,280129,200
47,25179,102±5,854±6,790±7,742
Incidence, model 247,02981,08798,953133,086172,667
47,25179,102±4,093±7,836±13,499
Prevalence166,494304,410372,407501,875651,330
170,025304,083±10,163±12,458±15,874
Dialysis125,352225,852281,355390,437520,240
124,918221,596±7,764±14,865±25,609
Functioning transplant47,29186,488105,539140,295178,806
47,33986,371±1,318±2,524±4,349
Waiting for transplant16,98935,76546,68768,72295,550
17,55736,036±1,661±3,179±5,478
Medicare cost ($, in millions)5,20610,89214,20820,55128,292
5,14210,765±521±1,012±1,743