Incidence | Prevalence | Dialysis | Functioning Transplant | Waiting for Transplant | Medicare Cost ($, in millions) | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

Model 1 | Model 2 | ||||||

^{a} The mean error indicates an average difference (1982 to 1997) of the forecasted values from the observed values. Largest and smallest errors indicate one of the 16 yr (1982 to 1997) that exhibited the largest or smallest deviation of the forecasted value from the observed value. A positive sign indicates overforecasting, and a negative sign indicates underforecasting. | |||||||

^{b} The mean percent error reflects a proportional deviation of the mean error. Largest and smallest percent errors reflect proportional deviations of the largest and smallest errors, respectively. | |||||||

^{c} The correlation coefficient indicates the correlation between the observed values and the one-step-ahead forecasted values. | |||||||

Mean error^{a} | 74 | 0.001 | 2344 | −0.005 | 0.003 | 0.001 | 6 |

largest error (residual) | 4135 | 1722 | 7760 | 3331 | 782 | 625 | 236 |

smallest error (residual) | −2365 | −1985 | −1750 | −4256 | −672 | −851 | −126 |

Mean percent error^{b} | 0.25 | −0.03 | 1.03 | −0.03 | 0.06 | −0.11 | −0.12 |

largest percent error | 19.23 | 4.38 | 2.90 | 3.56 | 6.37 | 5.63 | 4.84 |

smallest percent error | −5.76 | −3.83 | −2.18 | −3.60 | −3.35 | −6.16 | −2.99 |

R^{2} | 0.9909 | 0.9963 | 0.9973 | 0.9983 | 0.9998 | 0.9974 | 0.9985 |

Correlation coefficient^{c} | 0.9955 | 0.9981 | 0.9995 | 0.9991 | 0.9999 | 0.9987 | 0.9993 |