Table 1.

Logistic model parameter estimates, score points, and AUC for each risk factor included in the scoring modela

Risk FactorEstimate (CI)P ValuePointsAUC for Single Variable
Female gender0.48 (0.21–0.75)<0.001155.3
Congestive heart failure0.48 (0.20–0.76)<0.001163.9
Left ventricular ejection fraction <35%0.39 (0.07–0.71)0.016156.4
Preoperative use of IABP1.08 (0.49–1.67)<0.001252.6
COPD0.70 (0.37–1.04)<0.001154.8
Insulin-requiring diabetes0.40 (0.05–0.76)0.026154.4
Previous cardiac surgery0.54 (0.28–0.81)<0.001157.5
Emergency surgery1.13 (0.65–1.60)<0.001254.3
Surgery type
    valve only0.45 (0.10–0.80)0.013163.3
    CABG + Valve0.86 (0.53–1.19)<0.0012
    other cardiac surgeries1.02 (0.56–1.49)<0.0012
Preoperative creatinine 1.2 to <2.1 mg/dl0.92 (0.64–1.21)<0.001268.6
Preoperative creatinine ≥2.1 mg/dl2.66 (2.28–3.04)<0.0015
  • a CI, confidence interval; AUC, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve; IABP, intra-aortic balloon pump; COPD, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.