Table 3.

Incidence rates and HR of ESRD by JNC-7 BP category in 158,365 CHEFS participants, China 1991 to 2000a

BP CategorybPerson-YearsNo. with ESRDAge-Standardized Rate per 100,000 Person-YearscAge- and Gender-Adjusted HR (95% CI)dPMultivariate Adjusted HR (95% CI)ePPopulation-Attributable Risk (%)
All-cause ESRD
    normal482,9058117.81.001.00
    prehypertension430,20911924.51.33 (1.00 to 1.77)0.0521.30 (0.98 to 1.74)0.073N/A
    hypertension
        stage 1186,9587327.81.56 (1.13 to 2.17)0.0081.47 (1.06 to 2.06)0.023 6.1
        stage 2136,35010784.82.97 (2.19 to 4.02)<0.0012.60 (1.89 to 3.57)<0.00117.3
    P for trend<0.001<0.001
Glomerulonephritis-related ESRD
    normal482,905326.81.001.00
    prehypertension430,209429.01.26 (0.79 to 2.02)0.3321.32 (0.82 to 2.11)0.253N/A
    hypertension
        stage 1186,9582211.41.37 (0.78 to 2.39)0.2781.48 (0.83 to 2.61)0.182N/A
        stage 2136,3503744.33.05 (1.84 to 5.04)<0.0013.40 (2.02 to 5.74)<0.00119.6
    P for trend<0.001<0.001
Non–glomerulonephritis-related ESRD
    normal482,905214.91.001.00
    prehypertension430,209479.41.84 (1.09 to 3.11)0.0221.65 (0.98 to 2.80)0.062N/A
    hypertension
        stage 1186,958278.51.95 (1.08 to 3.51)0.0261.44 (0.79 to 2.64)0.240N/A
        stage 2136,3503723.13.50 (2.00 to 6.12)<0.0012.17 (1.21 to 3.88)0.00915.1
    P for trend<0.0010.022
Unknown cause of ESRD
    normal482,905286.11.001.00
    prehypertension430,209306.01.00 (0.59 to 1.69)0.9971.04 (0.61 to 1.75)0.899N/A
    hypertension
        stage 1186,958248.01.47 (0.84 to 2.59)0.1811.57 (0.88 to 2.80)0.127N/A
        stage 2136,3503317.42.52 (1.48 to 4.30)0.0012.72 (1.56 to 4.76)<0.00118.1
    P for trend<0.001<0.001
  • a N/A, not applicable; population-attributable risks were calculated for significant associations. HR, hazard ratio; CI, confidence interval.

  • b BP was categorized according to JNC-7 guidelines: Normal: SBP <120 mmHg and DBP <80 mmHg; prehypertension: SBP 120 to 139 mmHg or DBP 80 to 89 mmHg; stage 1 hypertension: SBP 140 to 159 mmHg or DBP 90 to 99 mmHg; stage 2 hypertension: SBP ≥160 mmHg or DBP ≥100 mmHg or use of antihypertensive medications.

  • c Rates were standardized according to the 2000 census data for China’s population.

  • d HR, with normal BP as the reference category were calculated using a Cox proportional hazards model adjusted for baseline age and gender and stratified by sampling clusters.

  • e HR, with normal BP as the reference category, were calculated using a Cox proportional hazards model adjusted for baseline age, gender, geographic region (north versus south), urbanization (urban versus rural), education, BMI, physical activity, current cigarette smoking, alcohol drinking, and history of diabetes and cardiovascular disease and stratified by sampling clusters.