Table 1.

Effect of African-American risk factors on model outcomes from initial model

African-American Risk FactorsAge-Adjusted PrevalenceESRD Lifetime Incidencea
Any CKDStage 1Stage 2Stage 3Stage 4Stage 5
Observed ratesb0.1470.0330.0400.0620.00586
Model predicted ratesc
 Base model0.1430.0270.0350.0720.0070.00239
 Systolic BP0.1440.0270.0360.0720.0070.00239
 All 30.1820.0480.0510.0720.0080.00352
  • a Lifetime incidence of initiating ESRD care per 1000 persons.

  • b Observed stage-specific CKD prevalence is based on the NHANES, 1999–2006. We did not report the estimated prevalence of stage 5 due to the limited sample size in NHANES. ESRD lifetime incidence is based on data from the USRDS.

  • c Stage-specific CKD prevalence and ESRD incidence are based on simulation results from the base model with no race adjustments other than mortality, and with individual African-American risk factors (systolic BP, diabetes, albuminuria), and all three risk factors.