Table 2.

Frequency, incidence rates, HRs, and 95% CIs for incident ESRD by quintile of serum levels of FGF-23 in the ARIC study (1990–2010; n=13,448)

RateQuintile of Serum Level of FGF-23 (pg/ml)P Value for Trenda
1 (<32.0)2 (32.0–38.5)3 (38.6–45.3)4 (45.4–54.6)5 (>54.6)
Participants (n)26902690268926902689
Events25 (0.9)30 (1.1)43 (1.6)56 (2.1)113 (4.2)<0.001
Incidence rateb0.53 (0.36 to 0.78)0.63 (0.44 to 0.90)0.91 (0.67 to 1.22)1.21 (0.93 to 1.57)2.55 (2.12 to 3.06)<0.001
Modelc
 11 [Ref]1.19 (0.70 to 2.03)1.72 (1.05 to 2.81)2.30 (1.43 to 3.68)4.88 (3.16 to 7.52)<0.001
 21 [Ref]1.20 (0.70 to 2.04)1.72 (1.05 to 2.82)2.18 (1.36 to 3.50)4.47 (2.89 to 6.90)<0.001
 31 [Ref]1.10 (0.65 to 1.87)1.41 (0.86 to 2.32)1.42 (0.88 to 2.28)1.92 (1.23 to 3.02)<0.001
 41 [Ref]1.08 (0.63 to 1.85)1.48 (0.90 to 2.45)1.33 (0.82 to 2.17)1.97 (1.25 to 3.11)<0.001
 51 [Ref]1.10 (0.64 to 1.91)1.58 (0.95 to 2.64)1.37 (0.83 to 2.25)2.10 (1.31 to 3.36)<0.001
  • Data are presented as n (%) or HR (95% CI) unless otherwise specified. Ref, reference group.

  • a Linear trend across the quintiles using the median of each quintile.

  • b Unadjusted incidence rate (95% CI) per 1000 person-years.

  • c Models are as follows: model 1 is unadjusted (no covariates included in the model); model 2 is adjusted for age, sex, and race; model 3 is adjusted for the variables in model 2 plus eGFRCr, eGFRCys, and eGFRCr-Cys; model 4 is adjusted for the variables in model 3 plus diabetes, systolic BP, antihypertensive medication, HDL cholesterol, body mass index, C-reactive protein, and β2-microglobulin; and model 5 is adjusted for variables in model 4 plus phosphate, calcium, and parathyroid hormone.