Table 4.

Predictive value of clinical and immunologic factors for SCC development during study

VariableUnivariateMultivariate
HR (95% CI)P ValueHR (95% CI)P Value
Age at enrolment (years)1.07 (1.03 to 1.11)<0.0011.03 (0.99 to 1.08)0.14
Male gender1.77 (0.72 to 4.37)0.22
Age at first transplant (years)1.04 (1.01 to 1.07)0.01
Received dialysis pre-transplant2.47 (0.75 to 8.18)0.14
Duration of dialysis pre-transplant (months)1.01 (1.00 to 1.01)0.041.00 (1.00 to 1.01)0.35
Total immunosuppression duration (months)1.00 (1.00 to 1.00)0.91
Number of HLA mismatches1.06 (0.83 to 1.37)0.64
Estimated GFR at enrolment (ml/min per 1.73 m2)1.00 (0.98 to 1.02)0.71
Cytomegalovirus seropositivity2.58 (0.98 to 6.78)0.06
Positive smoking history1.21 (0.57 to 2.59)0.62
History of previous SCC3.66 (1.55 to 8.64)0.013.25 (1.29 to 8.17)0.01
History of previous non-NMSC malignancy1.04 (0.36 to 2.99)0.94
Malignancy in first-degree relative0.57 (0.26 to 1.26)0.17
History of chronic UV exposure1.93 (0.85 to 4.39)0.12
Increasing Fitzpatrick skin type (no units)0.81 (0.51 to 1.28)0.36
Non brown eye color1.06 (0.47 to 2.40)0.89
Number of lymphocytes (cell/µl)1.00 (0.999 to 1.001)0.88
Number of CD3+ cells (cell/µl)1.00 (0.999 to 1.001)0.94
Number of CD4+ T cells (cell/µl)1.00 (0.998 to 1.000)0.20
Number of CD8+ T cells (cell/µl)1.00 (0.999 to 1.002)0.40
Number of Treg (cell/µl)0.97 (0.924 to 1.007)0.10
Number of γδ T cells (cell/µl)1.01 (1.001 to 1.009)0.011.01 (1.001 to 1.010)0.02
Number of CD57+ CD8+ T cells (cell/µl)1.00 (1.000 to 1.002)0.14
>50% CD57+ CD8+ T cells4.60 (1.745 to 12.11)0.012.85 (1.02 to 7.95)0.05
  • Variables are expressed as a HR, per unit increase for continuous variables (units in parentheses where appropriate). For multivariate modeling >50% CD57+ CD8+ T cells was adjusted for variables significant on univariate analysis (all adjusted values are given). Age at enrolment and age at first transplant correlated strongly (r=0.74) and so only age at enrolment was utilized in the multivariate analysis, as the stronger predictor.