Table 2.

Risk of adverse events over 25 years of follow-up, by race/APOL1 status

White ParticipantsBlack APOL1 Low-Risk ParticipantsBlack APOL1 High-Risk Participants
Incident hypertension
 Events (n)4540891125
 Rate per 1000 person-years50.98 (49.52–52.49)70.31 (65.85–75.09)a72.47 (60.82–86.36)a
 Demographic-adjusted IRRReference1.42 (1.32–1.53)a1.49 (1.25–1.78)a
 Fully adjusted IRRReference1.13 (1.04–1.22)a1.21 (1.00–1.45)a
Incident diabetes
 Events (n)2698987167
 Rate per 1000 person-years14.61 (14.07–15.17)23.10 (21.71–24.59)a27.51 (23.64–32.02)ab
 Demographic-adjusted IRRReference1.60 (1.49–1.73)a1.92 (1.64–2.24)ab
 Fully adjusted IRRReference1.26 (1.16–1.38)a1.41 (1.20–1.67)a
Incident cardiovascular disease
 Events (n)238167999
 Rate per 1000 person-years11.34 (10.90–11.81)11.94 (11.08–12.88)11.86 (9.74–14.44)
 Demographic-adjusted IRRReference1.18 (1.08–1.28)a1.25 (1.02–1.53)a
 Fully adjusted IRRReference0.85 (0.77–0.93)a0.88 (0.72–1.09)
AKI during follow-up
 Events (n)139451082
 Rate per 1000 person-years5.99 (5.68–6.31)8.36 (7.64–9.09)a9.12 (7.15–11.10)a
 Demographic-adjusted IRRReference1.54 (1.39–1.70)a1.71 (1.37–2.13)a
 Fully adjusted IRRReference1.04 (0.92–1.17)1.11 (0.88–1.40)
Hospitalizations during follow-up
 Events (n)42,47012,8591981
 Rate per 1000 person-years182.29 (180.56–184.03)208.96 (205.35–212.57)a216.65 (207.11–226.19)a
 Demographic-adjusted IRRReference1.23 (1.21–1.26)a1.32 (1.26–1.38)ab
 Fully adjusted IRRReference0.92 (0.90–0.95)a0.93 (0.89–0.97)a
Pre-ESRD hospitalizations during follow-up
 Events (n)41,74811,8741745
 Rate per 1000 person-years179.51 (177.79–181.23)194.71 (191.21–198.22)a194.12 (185.02–203.23)a
 Demographic-adjusted IRRReference1.17 (1.14–1.19)a1.20 (1.14–1.26)a
 Fully adjusted IRRReference0.89 (0.87–0.91)a0.86 (0.82–0.91)a
Incident ESRD
 Events (n)15314534
 Rate per 1000 person-years0.65 (0.55–0.76)2.35 (2.00–2.77)a3.76 (2.69–5.26)ab
 Demographic-adjusted IRRReference3.90 (3.10–4.91)a6.42 (4.42–9.33)ab
 Fully adjusted IRRReference1.87 (1.42–2.46)a2.84 (1.88–4.30)ab
All-cause mortality
 Events (n)35641246186
 Rate per 1000 person-years15.30 (14.80–15.81)20.25 (19.15–21.40)a20.34 (17.62–23.49)a
 Demographic-adjusted IRRReference1.52 (1.42–1.62)a1.63 (1.40–1.89)a
 Fully adjusted IRRReference1.06 (0.99–1.15)1.03 (0.88–1.20)
  • Persons with a history of hypertension were excluded from the incident hypertension analysis; persons with a history of diabetes were excluded from the incident diabetes analysis; persons with eGFR<15 ml/min per 1.73 m2 at baseline were excluded from the incident AKI and ESRD analyses. Incident AKI was censored at the development of ESRD. IRR, incident rate ratio.

  • a P<0.05 for the comparison of the black APOL1 low-risk subgroup versus the white subgroup as well as for the comparison of the black APOL1 high-risk subgroup versus the white subgroup.

  • b P<0.05 for the comparison of the black APOL1 high-risk subgroup versus the black APOL1 low-risk subgroup.