Table 5.

Comparisons of predicted versus observed cases of RRT commencement within 2 years among those with eGFR<60 ml/min per 1.73 m2, on the basis of the KFRE, and estimates of classification accuracy at 10% risk, using measured ACR versus ACR estimated from the PCR

RRT CasesPrediction using Measured ACR (95% CI)aPrediction using Median ACR Estimated from PCR with Model C4 (95% CI)aPrediction using Median ACR Estimated from PCR with Model L2 (95% CI)aObserved RRT within 2 yr (95% CI)
Cohort for comparing predicted vs. observed cases requiring RRT
 Overall cohort (n=9998)6.7 (6.2 to 7.2)6.9 (6.5 to 7.5)7.1 (6.6 to 7.6)4.8 (4.4 to 5.3)
 ACR <30 mg/g (n=4237)0.7 (0.5 to 1.0)0.9 (0.6 to 1.2)0.9 (0.6 to 1.2)0.3 (0.2 to 0.5)
 ACR 30–300 mg/g (n=3104)3.8 (3.1 to 4.5)4.2 (3.5 to 5.0)4.4 (3.7 to 5.2)2.1 (1.6 to 2.7)
 ACR >300 mg/g (n=2657)19.5 (18.0 to 21.1)19.8 (18.3 to 21.3)20.0 (18.5 to 21.6)15.3 (13.9 to 16.7)
Estimates of classification accuracy for 10% 2 yr risk of RRT versus observed RRT in 2 yr
 Sensitivity87.8 (84.6 to 90.4)89.3 (86.2 to 91.7)89.3 (86.2 to 91.7)
 Specificity87.7 (87.0 to 88.3)87.1 (86.5 to 87.8)86.9 (86.2 to 87.6)
 PPV26.6 (24.5 to 28.9)26.1 (24.0 to 28.3)25.7 (23.7 to 27.9)
 NPV99.3 (99.1 to 99.5)99.4 (99.2 to 99.5)99.4 (99.2 to 99.5)
 Overall correct classification87.7 (87.0 to 88.3)87.2 (86.6 to 87.9)87.0 (86.3 to 87.7)
ROC C-statistic0.94 (0.94 to 9.96)0.95 (0.94 to 0.96)0.95 (0.94 to 0.96)
  • Data are shown as percent, unless otherwise indicated. Values reported in percent except for the ROC C-statistic. Model C4 is the full cubic spline median regression model; L2 is the linear spline median regression model containing only the linear spline, sex, and interactions between the spline and sex. All classification into ACR categories is on the basis of measured ACR. ROC, receiver operator characteristic.

  • a Calculated using log(ACR), eGFR, age, and sex according to the equation given in Tangri et al.16